The Unprecedented SARS Threat: Peeping the Complexity of Decision-making in School Administration

Severe and Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) caused great crisis to Hong Kong between March and May 2003. Schools were suspended since 31 March. Classes resumed at different time for different levels mandated by central authority, senior secondary earliest and junior primary and kindergarten last. There were controversies over various operational issues in connection to school activities during this period, such as, whether teachers should be on duty in school or to avoid face-to-face contacts? Should schools with known suspected cases be named and made public? It was coincident that student teachers were in schools having their internship. Critical incidents raised query on the theory-in-use behind partnership between university and schools on teachers training. Various scenarios observed during this crisis period offer a window of opportunity to understand the complexity of decision-making in school administration in the light of the family of Complexity Theories.

二○○三年三月至五月期間，香港經歷嚴重的非典型肺炎危機。學校自三月三十日起停課。隨後由中央指令分級分期復課、高中先行、初小及幼稚園最後。這期間，學校各樣運作該如何進行、眾說紛紜。老師應否回校當值？學校如有懷疑疫症個案、應否通告公眾週知？疫症期間正值準老師駐校實習、大學與學校協作的活用理論實情又如何？危情境況開闢了一道視窗，供窺看錯綜體理論在學校行政決策上的應用。

We usually think about schools as a hierarchical and mechanistic structure, with a clear line of authority from the school management committee, the supervisor, and the principal at the top, trickling down through middle management, teachers and parents, to pupils. Schools abide to rules stipulated as operation codes such as the Code of Aid, upon which the central government exerts legitimate indirect control via the school sponsoring body, or occasionally interferes directly through administrative mandates. From time to time, schools form partnership with non-government bodies such as the church, the social services agencies, and the universities for specific purposes. Teachers initial training practicum is one such routine that has evolved from being a mandatory service schools have to perform for the Teachers Colleges (before the establishment of the Hong Kong Institute of Education in 1994) to become voluntary service. Once voluntary, only a small number of schools are willing to contribute internship opportunities nowadays. Educational reform efforts like the School Based Management strategy promulgated since 1991 give schools an impression that the government is moving towards an open decentralization policy, to allow schools to decide on their administrations, and to choose what the school communities see as the best option locally. Schools may therefore be interpreted as having a loose-coupling relationship with the central educational authority, namely, the Education and Manpower Bureau, and other non-government agencies such as the universities.

In times of crisis, the foundation of these reform directions and loose-coupling relationships are shaken. New pressure agencies such as the media, parents groups, and local schools networks emerge to challenge the authority relationships. At moments, it looks as if the linear power relationship is in disarray, a time of disorder and unpredictable chaos. The first Severe and Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) crisis in March through May 2003 in Hong Kong is such an unprecedented challenge.

In retrospect, the non-linearity paradigm is a more fruitful lens to help us understand the order behind disorder. SARS crisis provides critical incidents that serve as a window of opportunity for us to learn about the need towards a holistic understanding of the differential impact (Wallace and Pocklington, 2002: p.41) of any single administrative decision on the community within the schools ecological setting.

Linearity implies predictability. Anticipating a constant direct proportionality, quantifiable outcome is predictable for any known amount of input. If control mechanism is also available to counteract any deviation from the pre-set norm, a stable operational system could be installed and sustained. This is the classical design goal of any deviation-counteracting negative feedback system control mechanism.

Non-linearity leads to surprises. Chaos theory and Complexity Theories, the conceptual manifestation, could be the two sides of the same coin characterizing the non-linear paradigm. In their simplest interpretations, Chaos theory discovers order behind superficial disorder. Given enough time and adequate observation, patterns will emerge. Complexity Theories demonstrate that by involving a large number of independent yet interacting agents, and that each of them contributes their own independent effort applying the same set of simple decision rules iteratively, complex behavioural patterns could evolve and show. The mechanism behind the two groups of theories is the same -- a small initial input amplified itself through repeated cycles of positive feedback (self-referential and deviation-amplifying loops) that influence individual decision, eventually forming a new pattern of preference for the entire community.

Non-linear systems are typified by changing relationships between their constituent parts. The shifting and transformation of these relationships generate rhythms, cycles, and disorder. Non-linear systems can also produce instability and Chaos and behave in very erratic and unpredictable ways. … Non-linear systems can totally transform themselves into novel and more complex forms. (Kiel, 1994: p.5)

Non-linearity may worth further studies and be applied to analysis of educational reform efforts. Optimists believe that it would eventually lead to an overhaul of education personnel preparation programs, school organization, curricula frameworks and standards, and expectations for student learning (Reilly, 2003: p.8). Depending on the circumstances, educational systems demonstrate the characteristics of either a linear system or non-linear system at various times. Because of the possibility of non-linear behaviour of the system, changing one element of an educational system may lead to unexpected changes in other parts of the system (Reilly, 2003: p.12).

Chaos Theory seeks order in intricate, unusual, or odd patterns (Willower & Uline, 2001). Chaos is used here as a metaphor and “the term ‘metaphor’ implies the transfer or bearing of meaning. By definition, a metaphor is ‘a figure of speech in which a word or phrase literally denoting one kind of object or idea is used in place of another to suggest a likeness or analogy between them” (Fitzgerald and Eijnatten, 2002, p.408).

While most other complexity theories have their roots in systems and organizational studies, Chaos Theory has its origin from scientific observations, as is the identification of the famous butterfly-shaped Lorenz Attractor in the study of weather forecast; the disclosure of the bifurcation diagram in the study of fish population dynamics, etc. (Gleick, 1993) Should Chaos Theory be grouped among Complexity Theories is a minor dispute. Those support that it should find that the computer simulations that successfully demonstrate chaos phenomena use formulae that assume complexity (Kellert, 1993). Those against the inclusion claim that Chaos Theory is a scientific discovery, aloof from systems thinking:

Chaos does not refer to a class of systems, but to the dynamic behaviour of a large class of non-linear systems characterized by high sensitivity to initial conditions. … Complex systems do not need to be chaotic to be “complex” and chaos is not closely related to complexity. In other words, “chaos cannot explain complexity”. (Morel and Ramanujam, 1999: p.280)

Applied to social science, Chaos Theory discerns that dynamic systems behave in one or more particular routine patterns that tend to be quite stable under normal context (the attractor basins). Once turbulence build up to a dangerous point (edge of chaos) such as amid a vigorous social debate, alternative opinions surface, diverse values voice up, new ideas prop up to defend the old or to support the new, and preferences change with the end result that the routines the group prefers split (bifurcation). Here, the same input value may yield more than one possible solution. We therefore cannot understand the behaviour of the system at this junction unless we know its history (Kellert, 1993: p.95). The new idea and the subsequent new pattern of routine could be very different from the accustomed one. It should be noted here that returning to the accustomed routine attractor basin could also be a possibility after dissipation of new inputs.

The simplest member of Complexity Theories is the Theory of Autopoiesis, emphasizing self-production (self-creation and self-renewal) of an organization (Morgan, 1997: p.254). The creation of Boids by Craig Reynolds gives powerful verification of how simple rules create complex collective behaviour. Boids are simulated agents in cyberspace that can spontaneously display perfect flocking behaviour when programmed with three simple rules:

The two complex systems theories, namely, the Dynamical Systems Theory and the Complex Non-linear Systems Theory explain for the complex interaction of real systems. Complex systems bear two common characteristics: Large number of interacting elements and Emergent properties. Complex Systems Theory highlights four key characteristics: complex adaptive systems, self-similarity, self-organized criticality, and self-organization. In other words, component members of complex systems aim to adapt to each other in an interactive manner. They use rules that they learn from each other. They evaluate each other’s decision and maximize their own advantage for survival. Together, they find their own order to allow the survival and sustenance of the whole system. Complex Non-linear Systems Theory emphasizes that small incremental changes can produce large quantum (significantly different and powerful) effects.

Putting the two together, we may think this way: if an organization fails a chaotic phase, it perishes. If it survives, it stays long enough to dissipate turbulence and reorganizes itself to fit into the emergent situation. It straddles into the regime of complex adaptive systems and succeeds in self-organization. Morgan (1997) contends that the family of Complexity Theories encourages us “to understand how change unfolds through circular patterns of interaction, and how organization evolve or disappear along with changes occurring in the broader context.” (p.274).

Chaos Theory is the qualitative study of unstable aperiodic behaviour in deterministic non-linear dynamical systems (Kellert, 1993). Complexity Theories help us understand how simple rules could develop through interactive iterations into self-organized complex behaviour.

To sum up the characteristic features Chaos and Complexity systems display and to provide a convention of reference to these features, the following alpha-numeral labels [An] would be employed in the subsequent description on the study cases happened during the SARS crisis.

School suspensions as administrative mandates happen from time to time, in occasions such as the red rain warning, typhoon signal number 3 for kindergartens, number 8 for schools, etc. It helps schools reduce the trouble of individualized emergency communication [F1]. However, controversies often blow up afterwards [D1], criticizing the timing and the suitability of the decisions like an unfortunately misplaced red rain warning followed by good weather and bright sky.

Complexity theories allude that justification of the decision depends on the eventual display of the threatening cause and the final real consequences. It is a matter of balance between two competing interests: the principle of benefit maximization and the principle of equal respect (Strike et al, 1998).

This phenomenon of changed value and preferences is evident on school suspension as the unprecedented Severe and Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) crisis unfolds. Nobody knows the extent of risk schools face but SARS definitely hit the medical profession with fatal occupational casualty by surprise. School suspension at the discretion of individual schools (Shatin schools on 24 March 2003, in the neighbourhood of the Prince of Wales Hospital, the first hot spot of SARS outbreak) against the central policy (that schools are safe places) at that time was a wrongdoing (Secretary of the Education and Manpower Bureau, EMB, Prof. Arthur LI, in company with Mr. MA Shiu Leung on 25 March 2003). This same critical incident was declared right and was praised as a display of professional judgments [B1] by the headteachers concerned (Permanent Secretary of the EMB, Mrs. Fanny Law, 4 May 2003) after schools have been closed by central mandate (27 March 2003 with effect from 29 March 2003, Saturday) for over one month. Right or wrong is not a rational judgment but relies much on accurate projection of the development of the entire event.

Schools have attracted a lot of political interest in any pluralistic and democratic society. To be or not to be, that is the question. One early controversy was the issue whether schools having suspected SARS victim should be made public or not, and whether schools in the neighbourhood of SARS endemic should have classes suspended or not.

The first SARS suspect case on secondary school students was discovered 21 March 2003 (St Joan of Arc Secondary School, North Point, Hong Kong Island) but the source of infection was attributed to the mother of the student who is a worker in a public hospital on the Hong Kong Island East. By that time, the unit of concern for SARS outbreak was contained to specific wards in specific hospitals [A1].

Prince of Wales Hospital in Shatin was the most devastated hot spot by that time. Hysteria grew. Parents and school principals in the Shatin areas showed concern of their worries about possible community outbreak of SARS. With the support from district board councillors, energy built up and anger aroused to call for school suspension [A2]. Refusal of the EMB to close schools down sparked prompt discretionary closure by individual schools in Shatin (24 March 2003) and in turn triggered numerous followers. Other neighbouring schools expressed their feeling of pressure to close down [F2]. This fits into the Dissipation stage required in a Chaos system.

The outbreak of numerous SARS cases at Amoy Garden hastened school suspension, but at the same time concerns of the public was shifted to take estates and buildings as the core unit of attention – new Emergence of a Strange Attractor [S1].

Thereafter, pressure was built against the Health Department for disclosure of the buildings with confirmed SARS cases – a Dissipation mechanism. On a similar vein, pressure escalated against EMB as well [F3] that schools with suspected SARS cases were to be disclosed [S2]. Fortunately, schools have been suspended since 29 March 2003. Some young computer professionals began on 9 April 2003 to use a public web site (www.sosick.org) to enlist all the estates that they collected through rumours and whatever sources they could collect for public reference – new Emergence of a Strange Attractor [S3].

The public and the mass media endorsed with overwhelming enthusiasm to this public web site. This added pressure against the Health Department, which insisted those days that disclosure would lead to unnecessary fear of those concerned and discrimination against the residents of the named estates. The unconsolidated listing caused worries and when the number of estate building concerned exceeded 50, the Health Department yielded to disclose the list daily since 12 April 2003 – new Emergence of a Strange Attractor [S4]. The public cared less then after the third day because the number of building named climbed to 176 at its peak.

When EMB declared schools to resume classes on 22 April 2003 for Secondary 4 and above, concern sprang up right away that schools might become contagious centres of infection. The mass media shifted their focus of attention to seek schools as the unit of concern – new Emergence of a Strange Attractor [S5].

The first case after secondary schools resumed (PLK Wu Chung College disclosed on 28 April 2003) stirred up great concern. The Principal of that school has to make great effort to convince the public and his own staff that the case is no fault of the school and that worries of contagious infection due to the SARS suspect’s attendance on 28 April 2003 was unnecessary. The principal was alert of the complexity that could be stirred up at a time when schools resumed while the world was still ignorant about the biology of the corona virus that was attributed the causal agent of SARS. He was well prepared with contingency plans to face the mass media and in organizing the staff and the students during the extended school suspension for another 10 days.

On 8 May 2003, some medical report revealed statistically that contagious infection of SARS among teenagers is mild compared to adult infections, and that contagious infection of children under 10 years old is non-existent so far. Reason unknown and nobody criticized if the school community was over-sensitive or not.

In the foregoing analysis along with the narrative, I have identified three incidents of fractal self-similarities [F], one incident of sensitive dependence [D] on initial conditions, and so on. The number following the Alphabetical codes in the foregoing narrative gives the count of remaining features too. In fact, the principal of Wu Chung College has been alert of sensitive dependence on initial conditions and has adopted a contingency approach to attenuate any possible amplification of the impact. Throughout the description, the order behind disorder is the tension between fear of the public for falling into victims of SARS and the attempt of the government to attenuate fear in the community.

The narrative also directs attention on how complexity arises because the scared parents seek parallels from locating hospitals, and then estates, and eventually schools [C1, I1] as hot spots of contagious infections. Schools compared decisions of neighbouring schools, first in the district of Shatin and then spread throughout the territory [R1], eventually forcing the administrative mandate of suspending all classes of all schools.

At the same time, student teachers were having their internship practicum in schools. For many years, schools gathered an impression that tolerating student teachers to fulfil their teaching practicum requirement with their teaching classes is a burden. “It is good. Please let somebody else do it.”

The months between March and May every year are the peak internship period where graduating student teachers from all four teachers training institutions in Hong Kong send their students to schools. Except for a few, schools have been quite reluctant to accommodate for teaching internship. The Faculty of Education, University of Hong Kong started a University-Schools partnership programme a few years ago to secure a small number of partnership schools that are willing to enter into a long term relationship to accommodate 0 to 10 student teachers, the number to be compromised in different years. In return, the university offers professional development support to the volunteer schools. The Hong Kong Institute of Education (HKIEd) started similar programme on primary schools two years ago and is going to extend this to secondary schools in 2003/04. Apart from the teaching workload that student teachers must fulfil in order to complete their practicum requirements, schools were instructed to treat these student teachers with the same disciplinary requirement as with their own regular staff, and to appropriate a fair amount of other school duties to them so as to widen their horizon. It works quite well in the past few years. It is a good win-win idea.

In March 2003, student teachers were in their practicum in schools. When SARS struck the territory, there is no precedence what to do next. When schools in Shatin became scared and began to use their discretion to suspend all classes, the eight university-grants-maintained tertiary institutions were debating on the necessary precautionary actions on their teaching classes. On the day the Secretary of Education and Manpower (SEM) declare closure of all primary and secondary schools, university students were lobbying signatures to urge the universities to suspend classes [I2]. Eventually, all eight universities administrations agreed to suspend class teaching [R2] on the same day (31 March 2003). Students were notified through email.

The mandate from SEM declared that classes are to be suspended. Students need not go to schools. However, schools should remain open so that students who wish to may have access to the school library and the computer and Internet facilities. Teaching staff are not supposed to have extra holiday for SARS threat.

One of those university-school partnership schools have accommodated student teachers from all four teachers training institutes. This school decided to utilize the rare opportunity of having teachers working hours without students to run a week of staff development workshop. The theme was to explore group learning in junior secondary subjects with an aim of catering for the diverse learning styles. Student teachers were assigned to join major subject groups along with their mentors for work throughout the week. Work started fine the first day. The second day, student teachers of the University of Hong Kong disappeared. They were late to inform the school that they received email instructions from the university that teaching practicum is also suspended with immediate effect [A3]. On Day 4, students from the HKIEd disappeared too [F4, I2], without a notification to the school. On the next day, the director in charge of HKIEd student practicum sent a fax to schools informing that the practicum has to be suspended by mandate from senior administration and she told schools that she assumed [A4, falling back to the accustomed attractor basin] schools would continue to support and would appreciate a natural extension of the practicum session for another two weeks beyond the stipulated date. She violated inadvertently the principle of equal respect implicit behind the University-schools partnership.

Under the principle of equal respect, the individual is the source of moral judgment (Strike et al, 1998). It is not the consequences of a policy that matter as much as it is the process and substance of the implementation (Gorman and Pauken, 2003). Student teachers were in a dilemma of having two masters during the internship, namely, the instructions from the university because of the role as university students; and the instruction from the school authority in a capacity parallel to and declared to serve equal duty as any other regular teacher. Their withdrawal, be it because the university was in fear that insurance does not cover SARS victims or that middle management feels more comfortable to see a general agreement with events happening in the university campus, poses a silent accusation that schools are no longer safe from SARS – an inadvertent proposition that results in bifurcation in work attendance in schools [B2]. This spills over to jeopardize the justification for regular schoolteachers to be kept to work in the same school campus.

Attempts to apply Chaos Theory and Complexity Theories to social sciences have been made some twenty years ago. Griffiths et.al. (1991) explored the potential of Chaos Theory as an alternative to inform educational administration but asserted that because of the requirement of very precise measures on initial conditions in order to achieve predictable quantitative outcomes, the application of Chaos Theory to educational administration is limited. In this article, I take a qualitative approach to apply Chaos Theory to help us understand educational administration in broader dimensions.

Apparent discrete systems display fractal self-similarity by choice of the component agencies. This is because members in one system search for similar meaning from the practices in parallel decision systems. For instance, the university students made parallel comparisons from schools and pressed against university administrators. Likewise, parents are equally earnest to know if any neighbourhood school has a suspected SARS case as if any building in their neighbourhood has discovered a suspected SARS case.

The same action could bear totally different meaning depending on the history behind the event. To publish names of suspected cases is sensitive and causes discrimination when the number of estate buildings involved is small but is immune from discrimination when the number exceeds 50 and known to have distributed as endemic all over the territory.

Insensitivity of middle management (people in charge of the internship) to unintended challenges against the partnership principle, and the uncontested assumption and acceptance of top down decisions together failed the test of equal respect in university-school partnership. The great difference in the espoused meaning of a partnership and the interpretation of the roles shouldered by different parties balkanized the partnership.

Surprises and confrontations may be reduced if administrators were trained also in the non-linear dynamic systems paradigm and be familiar with scenario analysis in the light of the family of Complexity Theories. Being aware of possible complexities of bifurcated outcomes as a result of differential impact on different components of the interacting network, trained administrators are more likely to consider holistically the consequences of an isolated decision and be prepared to take a contingency approach to cope with short term diverse outcomes.

The Unprecedented SARS Crisis: Peeking the Complexity of Decision-making in School Administration

Abstract <BACK TO TOP >

從非典型肺炎危機窺看錯綜體理論在學校行政決策上的應用

The School Ecological Setting in Hong Kong <BACK TO TOP >

Linearity versus Non-linearity <BACK TO TOP >

The Family of Complexity Theories <BACK TO TOP >

Building a Convention for Verifying the Rich Insights the Family of Complexity Theories offer <BACK TO TOP >

Administrative Mandates as Critical Incidents <BACK TO TOP >

Examples of Bifurcation on Preferences <BACK TO TOP >

A Test on the University-Schools Partnership in Teacher Training <BACK TO TOP >

Conclusion <BACK TO TOP >

Reference